For the next couple of days, I am attending the annual Sotheby’s broker retreat in Newport Beach, California. The setting is the beautiful St. Regis resort yet the focus is all business.

Why is this good use of my time? Year to date, 25% of our closed business came directly in the form of referrals from our fellow Sotheby’s Realty affiliates from around the globe. The average transaction size of these referrals is a whopping 1.6 million and the pace of referral activity continues to build.

The reach of the Sotheby’s Realty network is vast and the ability to connect the Sarasota and Manatee market to the most qualified buyers in the world is a huge competitive advantage to our customers and my shareholders at SKY Sotheby’s.

The notion that there is a condo glut in downtown Sarasota is hogwash. 3 Million plus perhaps, but certainly not 500 to 1.5 million.

I have studied most of the economic data prepared by the experts and respectfully disagree. What information do we have that the economists do not? Real time feedback from today’s buyer and the understanding that 50% of the new units slated for development are not going to be built any time soon.

Two examples are 100 Central and Plaza at 5 Points where in there are only seven units out of a total of 144 are on the resale market. Why? The buildings offer what most affluent people want: Great locations, high end finishes, first class amenities, up to hurricane code construction and a price point that is reasonable to justify as a second or third home.

The days of investors snapping up three pre-construction condos are long gone. What remains is the underlying population growth that has driven Florida real estate for the last 50 years.

There is a serious virus going around town affecting sellers of real estate known as the Wait Until Season Syndrome (WUSS).

The first symptom usually appears in the form of misguided belief. Misguided belief is best described in terms that the perfect buyer will arrive any moment after the first snowbird appears in the market. In addition to the first symptom of “misguided belief,” the second symptom kicks in which is known as delayed price modification. Modifying the current asking price of the property before the end of season does not make sense and leads to full bloom WUSS which results in loss of opportunities for contract.

What can you do to prevent catching this financially deadly virus?

1. Decide if you can afford to sell at this time based on comparable sales from the last six months.
2. Come clean with yourself and your agent and take the property off the market if you cannot afford to sell.
3. Rent or refinance to buy time for the inevitable swing to the upside that will occur in the coming years.

The best agents in the market are immunizing their customers by having proactive conversations and giving the hard truth to those who are not in a position to sell.

Sellers and agents who think that the season will bring buyers and offers are putting their financial health at risk. Most of the feeder market to Sarasota and Manatee counties are just starting to experience the economic conditions that have been present in our area throughout 2006 and the seasonal buyer is not going to make a move unless they see true value.

That is, buyer beware of trying to time the bottom of the market. As we all know, plenty sellers who tried to time the top of the market really missed the boat.

We will all look back at October and November of 2006 as one of the best times to buy in the last ten years.

Seeking examples? Look no further than the property at 232 Bird Key Drive. SKY Sotheby’s agent Heather Dunhill is marketing this fabulous bay front estate for 3.9 million. This price is a 2 million dollar reduction from the previous asking price of 5.9 million established earlier in the year by one of the most respected agents in the marketplace.

The window of opportunity is here, take it.

Formula for successful purchase:

1. Identify 2 or 3 suitable choices
2. Don’t be fooled by list price as many sellers are willing to negotiate from list price but do not want to broadcast their motivation
3. Ask your agent to prepare a market analysis using comparables from the last six months.
4. Write an offer based on the market data your agent has provided
5. Be prepared for an unacceptable counter
6. Try again as the second go round seems to be the time where most sellers come around to the fact that they should seriously consider the opportunity to sell.

Many of you may have commented on the obvious change to the SKY Sotheby’s display ad in Sunday’s Herald Tribune. This change is the start of a concerted effort to migrate away from the use of the daily newspaper as a vehicle to promote every single listing.

We believe that it is in the best interest of our home sellers to get in step with the fact that affluent home buyers are starting their search on the web. In fact, in the latest numbers published by the National Association of Realtors®, 77% of all home buyers report starting the buying process via the web.

A report created by Borrell and Associates http://www.borrellassociates.com/product.cfm?prodID=55 and Dunn & Bradstreet forecasts the effect on real estate advertising as a result predicting an increase in online advertising by almost 50% and the decrease in newspaper spending by almost one third.

Prior to making this move, we studied all of our inbound leads over that last 14 months utilizing the powerful Lead Router™ platform. Despite advertising every single listing in the Sunday paper for 52 straight weeks, only 1.7% of our total leads were generated from the Sunday display ad. After compiling and studying this information, we met with all of our current home sellers to explain our findings and our strategy to market their properties which meant a move away from one big display ad and more targeted programs to market their specific property.

This change does not mean the end to all of our print media buys! Rather, we now have the ability to optimize our media spending with the most effective print media platforms including the global print run of the Wall Street Journal as well as many local papers including The Herald Tribune Classifieds, The Longboat Observer, Pelican Press and Anna Maria Islander.

While it would be easy to continue with the status quo, continuing to run the same ineffective ad is a complete copout and not the right thing to do for our customers. Today’s market demands more sophisticated multi media advertising programs and not simply using the same techniques that worked 20 years ago.